Oscars 2026 Best Picture Nominees: Part One - The Favourites

The Academy Awards has faced numerous criticisms over the years, but for me it’s still the movie buff’s equivalent of the FA Cup Final. I’ve been following the competition since the mid ‘90s and I get why some people have gripes with it, whether it’s the lack of diversity, a tendency to award mediocre Oscar bait over more risky and innovative filmmaking, or simply the very Hollywood-centric nature of it all. 

Despite all that and more, I’m always buzzing from the moment the nominations drop just after Christmas. That’s the time when I start chalking off movies I haven’t already caught up with and following the form of the runners and riders, trying to predict the winners and upsets on the big night – one of the few times I’ve ever won a bet was when I had a fiver on Moonlight to reel in La La Land. The notorious mix-up at the ceremony only made that underdog victory even sweeter!

This year is really an event to savour because we have one of the strongest line-ups in the Best Picture category since the Academy expanded the category to ten nominees. All too often, there have been clear favourites among a bunch of also-rans, but we can’t say that this time around. Sure, there are two big favourites, but you can probably argue a case for why at least half the field should win without making a fool of yourself.

Overall, it’s an encouraging sign for cinema, with some big-hitting original IPs receiving rave reviews and multiple Oscar nods; some outstanding filmmaking and performances; and the continuing trend of acclaimed international pictures up for the top prize and not just Best Foreign Language Film. 

Let’s start off by looking at the main contenders before getting into the long shots – after all that, I’ll stick my neck out and make some Oscar predictions!

Sinners

The big story when the Oscar nominations dropped was that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners had made history, racking up an astonishing 16 nods and beating the previous record of 14 held jointly by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land. Not bad for an original genre-hopping period vampire musical with a cast made up almost entirely of people of colour – surely an indication that the film industry has been working to address the issues of diversity that sparked the #OscarsSoWhite campaign back in 2015.

We generally try to avoid controversial statements here at Art of the Movies, but I’m going to say something that might upset some people: On top of the record-breaking nominations tally, Sinners is also the best thing to come out of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

No, I’m not trying to make a case for the movie’s story and characters somehow being part of the MCU. My point is that without the phenomenal success of Black Panther and its sequel, Wakanda Forever, Coogler may not have the credit in Hollywood to make Sinners at this point in time – or, at least, not in the same way that has wowed critics, audiences, and Academy voters alike since its release in April 2025.

Sure, Coogler showed great promise with his debut, Fruitvale Station, which landed him the gig revitalising the Rocky franchise with Creed. But helming the first ever superhero movie to receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars and pulling in over $2 billion at the box office from the two Black Panther films gives you a lot of clout. The kind that gives you $100 million to make the movie of your choice with final cut, first-dollar gross (a percentage of the profits from day one), and ownership of the film after 25 years. And that is definitely a Good Thing for anyone who loves cinema because Coogler has crafted an instant classic, which means studios might be encouraged to take similar chances in the future.

From a purely enjoyment level, Sinners is one of those movies that I couldn’t wait to see again even as I was watching it for the first time. Coogler’s ever-present collaborator Michael B. Jordan puts in a charismatic double turn as the Smokestack Twins, two small-time gangsters who return home to Depression-Era Mississippi after several years running with the Mob in Chicago. They use their ill-gotten gains to buy an old saw mill from the Klan and turn it into a juke joint for the local Black folk, recruiting their cousin Sammie (Miles Caton in a breakout performance), a poor sharecropper with a preternatural gift for the Blues, as the star attraction.

Unfortunately, Sammie’s music draws Remmick (Jack O’Connell), an ancient Irish vampire and his band of folk-singing bloodsuckers, who promise immortality and equality if they’re invited in to join the party. Will the Smokestack Twins and their revellers survive from dusk till dawn?

Sinners is the best kind of cinematic hybrid, boldly merging genres with a surprising amount of emotional depth and plenty to say about life in the Jim Crow South in 1930s America. Coogler has cited many sources as inspiration, the most obvious at first glance being From Dusk Till Dawn, but crucially he has melded all the influences into something that feels proudly its own thing.

It’s not a perfect movie; much like Robert Rodriguez’s vampire stripper crime flick, Sinners is more interesting before the gory action gets going in the somewhat rushed last act. But that’s only a small quibble because it’s so exciting to see a young filmmaker given the creative freedom to really swing for the fences, summed up by an astonishing musical sequence that could’ve gone horribly wrong if Coogler didn’t have the talent and the confidence to pull it off.

As it stands, that moment (you’ll know it when you see it) is one of the most transcendentally audacious movie scenes in recent memory, and the director caps it all off with a lengthy coda in the end credits that adds an extra level of satisfying poignancy. Expectations will be high for Coogler after delivering a box office smash with a record Oscar nominations haul, but I can’t wait to see what he does next. In the meantime, I’ll no doubt watch Sinners again!

One Battle After Another

Sinners may have made the headlines with its huge nominations haul, but the odds-on favourite for Best Picture with the bookies is still One Battle After Another. It sounds an unlikely prospect on paper: A sprawling, incendiary chase thriller written and directed by… Paul Thomas Anderson? But then again, it should hardly come as a surprise because if there is one thing predictable about PTA’s unpredictable career, it’s that he almost always shifts gears and switches genres from one film to the next.

Anderson sets the tone immediately as we’re thrown among the ranks of French 75, a scrappy but very motivated revolutionary group preparing a daring raid on a detainment camp on the Mexican border to spring a bunch of migrants. Chief among them are Perfidia Beverly Hills (Teyana Taylor), the gang’s fearless African-American leader, and her fella Ghetto Pat Calhoun (Leonardo DiCaprio), a nervy explosives expert. 

During the raid, Perfidia encounters the camp’s commander, Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw (Sean Penn). When he leers at her, she sexually humiliates him before locking him up and making her escape with the rest of the crew. Lockjaw becomes obsessed with Perfidia and follows the gang as they perpetrate a variety of other revolutionary actions. Interrupting them as they are planting explosives in a bank, he agrees to let it slide if she meets him for sex later that night.

Perfidia falls pregnant and gives birth to a daughter named Charlene, but leaves Pat holding the baby as she abandons them to carry on with the revolution. Things take a turn for the worst when a bank heist goes wrong and she faces conviction for murder. Lockjaw arranges for her to enter witness protection if she gives up the names of her collaborators, leading to most of the group dying at the hands of Lockjaw and his team.

Skip forward 16 years and Pat is now bringing up a teenage Charlene (Chase Infiniti) in a safe haven under stolen identities, going by the names Bob and Willa Ferguson. The years have not been kind to Bob, who is now a paranoid burn-out, much to the disapproval of his bright and strong daughter.

Meanwhile, Lockjaw has risen through the ranks and gets invited to join a white supremacist group called the Christmas Adventurers. His hard line on immigration seemingly makes him tailor-made for the role, but there is a snag: The hierarchy won’t abide inter-racial relationships. Suspecting Willa may be his daughter, Lockjaw plans a raid on the commune to erase the evidence…

One Battle After Another speaks very directly to the current state of play in the United States with its detention centres, sinister fleets of SUVs disappearing people off the streets, and heavy-handed paramilitary “law” enforcement. Perhaps surprisingly given its topicality, it’s a movie that has been in the works for around 20 years.

Loosely adapting Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel Vineland, Paul Thomas Anderson shot the film before Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term in office. It just happened to land exactly when it seemed most relevant, which has led conservative and right-leaning critics to accuse Anderson of pandering to leftie elites.

Yet One Battle is a PTA joint, which means its serious message is tempered by the filmmaker’s offbeat sensibilities. While I felt almost unbearably fearful for Bob and Willa at times, it might just be Anderson’s funniest and most outright entertaining movie since Boogie Nights. Sure, it’s an unequivocal condemnation of authoritarianism, white supremacy, and the abuse of power, but it’s also a madcap chase thriller with dashes of black comedy and a touching family drama to boot.

The title may equally refer to Bob’s post-revolutionary life in hiding, bringing up Willa single-handedly while constantly fearing capture or death. In that sense, it’s a film that is just as much about the challenges of parenting as it is about challenging tyranny, and the prickly dynamic between Bob and Willa is heartfelt – PTA is the father of bi-racial daughters himself, and that authenticity certainly comes through in this movie.

A lot of the humour comes from the performances of the male actors. While it’s hard to escape the feeling that we’ve already seen a variation of DiCaprio’s burnout shtick before in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, the A-lister commits fully to the character and makes Bob a loser protagonist you can’t help rooting for. With his brain so fried by constant drug use that he can’t remember his passwords when the shit hits the fan, he spends the bulk of the movie shambling around in a grubby dressing gown trying to find Willa after the resistance spirits her to safety as Lockjaw’s hit squad closes in.

His demeanour summed up by his unlikely surname, Lockjaw is a cartoon villain vividly drawn by Sean Penn’s joyously bizarre performance. This is a man so severe and bunched up emotionally that his veins seem about to burst from his skin. Penn invests him with an entire arsenal of tics, grimaces, gulps, lip curls, and snarls, plus a peculiar butt-clenching strut that looks like he’s training really hard for the race walking event at the Olympics.

The sweaty intensity of DiCaprio and the grotesque zeal of Penn is offset by the laid-back presence of Benicio Del Toro as Sergio St. Carlos, Willa’s karate teacher who also runs an underground railroad for imperilled immigrants. Humble yet totally unflappable, he’s a reassuring hand in a crisis and has one line that sums up Anderson’s assertion that the movie isn’t just about what’s happening now - this stuff has been going on for centuries. At one point when Bob turns to him for help escaping, our frazzled hero apologises for bringing trouble to his door. Carlos calmly replies: “We’ve been laid siege for hundreds of years. Don’t get selfish.”

While the guys put in the more flashy performances, it is the female actors who ground the film. Teyana Taylor has scored a Best Supporting Actress nod for her memorably feisty turn as Perfidia despite vanishing about 30 minutes in. Chase Infiniti is outstanding in her film debut as Willa, an intelligent and fiercely independent young woman who provides the beating heart of the story. It’s a shame Infiniti was snubbed for an Oscar nod after such an assured turn, but no doubt she’ll get her chance again in the future.

I’ve been a big fan of Paul Thomas Anderson since Boogie Nights and One Battle After Another is a step up from even his high standards. Brilliantly acted, beautifully shot and edited, and evocatively scored, it’s the complete package. As I’ve already said about Sinners, it feels like an instant classic. This has led to a rare moment in 30 years of Oscar fandom: A situation where I’d like to see both favourites win Best Picture!

Hamnet

I had really mixed feelings when I sat down to watch Hamnet. On one hand, I’ve admired Chloe Zhao’s work since The Rider and I’m a fan of both Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. That combo really pumped up my expectations for this adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s speculative historical novel. On the other, I wasn’t looking forward to it at all because I will cry at almost anything and I was anticipating a very rough time – especially after Mescal ‘s performance in Aftersun broke me a few years back.

Hamnet has been heavily marketed on its central tragedy, namely that of the death of William Shakespeare’s 11-year-old son, played here by the precociously talented Jacobi Jupe. Mescal is the young Bard and Buckley is his wife Agnes Hathaway, reimagined as a witchy woman raised in the forest and possessing a deep connection to nature. They’re somewhat star-crossed lovers, and the first fault lines appear in their marriage after they start a family but Will decides he needs to head to London to further his chances as a writer – a move reluctantly supported by Agnes until Hamnet succumbs to the plague. Her anger at Will for being absent while their son died drives a wedge between the couple, but the aspiring playwright is able to channel his grief into his masterpiece, Hamlet.

Hamnet is atmospherically shot and masterfully acted, but I just couldn’t connect with it at all. That came as a shock. Apart from being a cry-baby and really liking the principal people involved, I’ve also found it difficult at times to juggle my aspirations as a writer and my duties as a parent. But I spent most of the film feeling vaguely irritable about it – Hamnet’s death is such a big selling point of the movie that everything that comes before feels like preamble, and I was unable to engage with the family’s loss despite the powerhouse performances.

I had the weird sensation that I was watching the drama unfold through the wrong end of a pair of binoculars, perhaps from a box seat at the Globe. I put that down to how Zhao handles the material. While her style in The Rider and Nomadland was very intuitive and empathetic, her approach is far more distant and mannered here. The craft is impeccable, but there is nothing about the film that feels organic – somewhat ironic since Buckley’s character is portrayed as a witch-like Earth mother who’s really into practical magic and natural remedies.

As a result, much of Hamnet felt like watching a two-hour acting workshop with all the players taking long run-ups at their big scenes and then taking turns emoting the hell out of it. They’re all clearly having a fine old time exploring the boundaries of their talents, but none of that passion filtered its way through to me as a viewer. I was ultimately left cold by the whole experience. Having said all that, Buckley is a revelation as always and her courageous performance will almost certainly earn her first Oscar triumph for Best Actress.

Marty Supreme

The strength of the 2026 Best Picture category has led some critics to draw comparisons to the mid-’70s, and further evidence can be found in every frame of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme – not least a super-sized central performance by Timothée Chalamet that echoes the great actors of the American New Wave.

Set in 1952 but fizzing along to a terrific ‘80s soundtrack, the film follows the fortunes of Marty Mauser (Chalamet), a brash young table tennis player who works as a shoe salesman at his uncle’s shop to fund his passion. He’s also mixing an affair with his childhood friend Rachel (Odessa A’zion) and taking very long lunch breaks to spend time honing his skills. Arrogant and self-absorbed, Marty nevertheless has the talent to back up his claims to greatness, but his rise to the top hits a wall when he loses in the final of the British Open in London to the stoic Japanese champion Koto Endo (played by real-life deaf table tennis wizard Koto Kawaguchi).

While he’s on his London trip, Marty also finds time to pursue faded movie star Kay Stone (Gwyneth Paltrow), whose millionaire husband Milton Rockwell (Shark Tank regular Kevin O’Leary) floats the chastened wannabe champ an exhibition match against Endo to earn his air fare to Tokyo and compete for real in the World Championships.

The ever-proud Marty can’t stand the prospect of throwing a match for the Japanese crowd and rudely shoots down the offer. Flying solo after the success of Good Time and Uncut Gems with his brother Benny, Josh Safdie hits a similar level of nerve-jangling intensity as Marty pinballs around New York trying to raise money for the trip through an escalating series of shady schemes. Sometimes he’s assisted by Rachel (now eight months pregnant with Marty’s child) who turns out to be just as much of a hustler as our protagonist himself.

I was surprised by how much I loved Marty Supreme. Although I appreciate the Safdie Brothers’ earlier films, sitting through a two-hour panic attack isn’t my idea of a great time at the movies. But while Josh Safdie hits familiar anxiety-inducing beats, the story is more richly textured and he hits an emotionally satisfying note in the finale that takes some of the edge off. It still gets a little exhausting heading into the home stretch but Safdie directs with such irresistible verve, carrying us through to an exciting climactic battle that sticks the landing perfectly.

Marty Supreme is the most crowd-pleasing and accomplished Safdie project to date, aided by some of the best creative names in the business. Cinematographer Daniel Khondji shot on good old fashioned film with vintage cameras to give it a gritty period feel, and the stellar production design by Terrence Malick’s regular collaborator Jack Fisk adds to the authenticity. On the flip side, the anachronistic soundtrack works better than it has any right to, with ‘80s needledrops and an original electronic score by Daniel Lopatin enhancing the proceedings without ever pulling us out of the ‘50s setting.

That’s all before you get to the phenomenal cast, which is fitting because the film has arrived just in time to secure a nod for the inaugural Best Casting Oscar. Safdie has reportedly used a cast of around 140 non-actors, mostly going for interesting faces that are reminiscent of the kind of mugs you’d see in a classic ‘70s flick.

This large gallery of lived-in characters compliment striking performances by a mix of familiar names and promising newcomers. Gwyneth Paltrow has her best part since the ‘90s and it’s great to see the likes of Fran Drescher and Sandra Bernhard in small parts. Odessa A’zion makes a big impression in her breakout role as Rachel, a gutsy young woman who makes the perfect foil for Marty’s scheming. Perhaps the two most surprisingly effective turns come from Kevin O’Leary, who is immensely watchable as the tycoon who holds the key to Marty’s dream; and Tyler Okonma (aka Tyler the Creator) offering unshakeable good vibes as Marty’s table tennis buddy. 

The star attraction is of course Chalamet, who puts in an absolutely fearless turn as our selfish and mercurial protagonist. Marty is an awful person, but the actor’s charisma is so captivating that he manages to keep us rooting for him despite all the despicable things he says and does throughout the movie. It’s a riveting performance that has drawn favourable comparisons to the likes of Al Pacino and Dustin Hoffman in their ‘70s heyday, and one that will certainly dispel any lingering doubts about Chalamet’s acting ability. It’s a bit early to be talking about career-defining moments for him, but Marty is one of the 21st Century’s greatest film characters and it’ll take a lot of beating for Chalamet to top this.

Sentimental Value (Affeksjonsverdi)

If you can imagine The Royal Tenenbaums with European restraint rather than Wes Anderson’s relentless quirk, that’s basically where we’re at with Sentimental Value. Joachim Trier’s quietly devastating family drama is the tale of a bright and airy old Oslo house and Borg clan that have lived within its walls for many decades, passing down love, hang-ups, and trauma from one generation to the next.

The primary focus is Nora (Renate Reinsve) and Agnes (Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas), two close sisters who had a fairly happy childhood despite the disintegration of their parents’ marriage when their father Gustav (Stellan Skarsgård) left home to pursue his filmmaking career. The abandonment affected the girls in different ways as they grew up; while Agnes has come to terms and is now a well-adjusted historian and mother, Nora is a talented but anxiety-stricken stage actor who finds it hard to make emotional connections.

When their mother Sissel passes away, Gustav returns to Norway with more than attending the funeral in mind. Not only does he plan to reclaim the house, he also wants to shoot his new arthouse film in the home with Nora in the lead role. His sudden reappearance digs up old feelings and resentments, and Nora has no intention of working with her estranged dad. Outwardly unperturbed, Gustav casts young American up-and-comer Rachel Kemp (Elle Fanning) instead, a move that guarantees financing for the project from Netflix.

Also threaded through the narrative is the tragic tale of Gustav’s mother Karin, who was arrested and tortured during WWII for anti-Nazi propaganda and took her own life several years later. This traumatic event forms the crux of Gustav’s screenplay, which he believes is his magnus opus… but will it ever make it to the screen?

It’s refreshing to see a relatively low-key mostly foreign language drama in the Best Picture line-up, along with The Secret Agent also up for the top prize. The sea change began with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon but really started gathering momentum since the Best Picture triumph of Parasite. Now we’re seeing more international features recognised across all categories, which is a positive broadening of horizons by the Academy after many decades focusing primarily on American-made films. That can only be good for movie-goers and cinema as a whole, exposing viewers to new angles and fresh voices from around the world rather than just the United States and the UK.

Anyway, back to Sentimental Value. The intelligent screenplay explores how family dynamics are rarely straightforward, especially when the ambitions of individual members are factored in. It’s a nuanced film that acknowledges that resentment and tenderness can still co-exist within a dysfunctional household, and how the decisions we make can have far-reaching consequences on our loved ones.

Joachim Trier accomplishes this wonderfully mature and heartfelt family drama with a cast that is excellent across the board. Stellan Skarsgård finally gets the recognition he deserves for many years as one of our most reliable character actors, landing his first Oscar nod for his portrayal of Gustav. Skarsgård gets the balance of geniality and truculence just right as an ageing filmmaker looking for a major comeback while still clinging to his fading joie de vivre.

He’s well-matched by the trio of younger actors (Reinsve, Lilleaas, and Fanning) who all inhabit their roles with naturalistic ease. Some of the subtlety might be lost on viewers who prefer the broader strokes of Hollywood drama, but this is a warm and empathetic film that carries a deep sense of family history, and how that heritage radiates across time and penetrates the very fabric of the places we call home.

So there you have it, our rundown of the top contenders for this year’s Best Picture Oscar. Which film would you like to see win the prize? Are any of them over-rated? Let us know what you think!